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Education2026-03-197 min

How Our Thesis Strength System Works

Every research output comes with a thesis strength from 0 to 1. Here is how we calculate it and what it tells you about the agent's reasoning.

Not all research output is created equal

When the agent flags a research subject, we always include a thesis strength between 0 and 1. A strength of 0.85 means something very different from 0.55, and understanding this number helps you judge how much weight to give each output.

What goes into the thesis strength

The AI considers several factors:

  • Valuation gap: How far is the current price from what the data suggests is fair value?
  • Data quality: How many independent data sources confirm this pattern? One source is weak. Five sources agreeing is strong.
  • **Historical patte

    • Not all research output is created equal

    When the agent flags a research subject, we always include a thesis strength between 0 and 1. A strength of 0.85 means something very different from 0.55, and understanding this number helps you judge how much weight to give each output.

    What goes into the thesis strength

    The AI considers several factors:

  • Valuation gap: How far is the current price from what the data suggests is fair value?
  • Data quality: How many independent data sources confirm this pattern? One source is weak. Five sources agreeing is strong.
  • Historical patterns: Has the agent seen similar setups before? How did those play out?
  • Risk factors: What could go wrong? High upside with many risk factors gets a lower strength than moderate upside with few risks.
  • Macro alignment: Does the broader economic environment support or work against this thesis?

    • How to read it

    Here is a rough guide:

  • 0.80 and above: Strong thesis. Multiple data sources agree, the setup looks solid, and the risk/reward ratio is compelling.
  • 0.60 to 0.79: Moderate thesis. The pattern looks real but there are meaningful uncertainties.
  • Below 0.60: Weak thesis. The agent sees something interesting but the signal is noisy or the risks are elevated.

    • An important caveat

    A high thesis strength does not mean a guaranteed positive outcome. It means the available data points strongly in one direction at the time of research. Markets are unpredictable. A 0.90 thesis can still produce a negative observed outcome if unexpected events change the picture.

    That said, over time, higher-strength theses should produce better observed outcomes than lower-strength ones. That is what we track and measure in the public research history.

    Research output, not investment advice. The material above is observational and educational. Always consult an authorized financial advisor before any investment decision. Past observed outcomes do not predict future results.